skyboltone
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2011
- Messages
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Here. Watch today's loop of visible moisture along the West Coast: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsw2.html
There is a mini cyclone centered over Columbia California today. Notice also the conventional cyclonic activity in the Gulf of Alaska, or at least the portion we can see on this loop, accompanied by this weird counter flow attached to the coast.
This is not normal.
"NOAA's CFSv2 model is forecasting a strong El Nino event will develop this summer and continue through 2015.,<snip>. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has an excellent El Nino forecasting model which is also predicting a strong El Nino. Because the jet stream has already gone into an El Nino pattern by moving south over the eastern Pacific ocean and Mexico and further north than normal over the eastern Atlantic ocean, the likelihood of El Nino failing to strengthen is small. Last year's Kelvin wave failed to bring on a strong El Nino because trade winds in the south Pacific didn't weaken but this year they have and waters along the west coast of south America have already warmed. The south Pacific has moved out of the cool mode it was in a year ago.
I suggest we all panic and run around in circles.....just kidding.
Here's another knot head with a prediction. I mean scientist. Personally I blame George W Bush if this doesn't happen.
"El Niño conditions have flourished in recent weeks, says Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University at Albany. “Buoy observations suggest that the growth rate of El Niño conditions over the last few weeks is larger than any past event at this time of the year, even larger than the big event of 1997,” Roundy says. “The present amplitude, when compared with signals at the same time of year, for growing events, is the largest in the historical record going back to 1980.”
There is a mini cyclone centered over Columbia California today. Notice also the conventional cyclonic activity in the Gulf of Alaska, or at least the portion we can see on this loop, accompanied by this weird counter flow attached to the coast.
This is not normal.
"NOAA's CFSv2 model is forecasting a strong El Nino event will develop this summer and continue through 2015.,<snip>. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has an excellent El Nino forecasting model which is also predicting a strong El Nino. Because the jet stream has already gone into an El Nino pattern by moving south over the eastern Pacific ocean and Mexico and further north than normal over the eastern Atlantic ocean, the likelihood of El Nino failing to strengthen is small. Last year's Kelvin wave failed to bring on a strong El Nino because trade winds in the south Pacific didn't weaken but this year they have and waters along the west coast of south America have already warmed. The south Pacific has moved out of the cool mode it was in a year ago.
I suggest we all panic and run around in circles.....just kidding.
Here's another knot head with a prediction. I mean scientist. Personally I blame George W Bush if this doesn't happen.
"El Niño conditions have flourished in recent weeks, says Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University at Albany. “Buoy observations suggest that the growth rate of El Niño conditions over the last few weeks is larger than any past event at this time of the year, even larger than the big event of 1997,” Roundy says. “The present amplitude, when compared with signals at the same time of year, for growing events, is the largest in the historical record going back to 1980.”
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